As this is my 100th post on this blog I thought it would be a good moment to summarize the results that have emerged from the temperature data I have analysed so far. Below is a list of all the countries and regions that I have investigated to date with links to the relevant post. This amounts to about 60 countries, states and territories in total, which is roughly one third of all the countries in the world.
The main areas that so far remain to be studied are the Arctic, Canada, Russia, UK, Scandinavia, Mediterranean, North Africa, Middle East, China and Japan. In the Southern Hemisphere only Brazil, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana and the South Atlantic remain. However, most of these Southern Hemisphere regions are already included in the analysis of South America in Post 35.
Europe
Europe has the longest temperature records available with several in Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands stretching back to the early 18th century. The average of the 109 longest records yields a mean temperature anomaly (MTA) that shows a small but continuous warming of about 0.1°C per century for over 200 years until 1988. Then the temperature jumps suddenly by over 1°C. The reason for this jump is unclear. It is certainly not related directly to carbon dioxide emissions. The only countries that appear to have strong warming trends are the Benelux countries, Denmark and Switzerland. The Baltic states and most of central Europe appear to cool before 1980 and then warm suddenly.
109 longest station records (Post 44)
Austria (Post 55)
Baltic States (Post 51)
Belgium and Luxembourg (Post 40)
Central Europe average (Post 57)
Czechoslovakia (Post 53)
Denmark (Post 48)
Germany (Post 49)
Hungary (Post 54)
Netherlands (Post 41)
Poland (Post 50)
Switzerland (Post 56)
USA
The USA may not have any temperature records that are as long as the longest that Europe can boast, but its temperature data from 1850 onwards is the best there is. Virtually every state has over 100 station records with over 50 years of data and over 50 records with over 100 years of data. An average of the 400 longest temperature records appears to indicate that the climate warmed by more than 2°C from 1780 to 1920 when carbon dioxide levels barely increased, and then cooled by over 0.5°C when carbon dioxide levels took off. The early warming cannot therefore be due to CO2 and is therefore generally attributed to urbanization and deforestation in the north and east. The cooling seen after 1920 is also seen in most southern states like Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas.
400 longest station records (Post 66)
Louisiana (Post 97)
Mississippi (Post 99)
Texas (Post 52)
Central America
The temperature data for Central America can basically be split between Mexico and the rest, however, even then there are more than four times as many stations in Mexico as there are in the rest of Central America. The picture in Mexico is also complicated by the stations there falling into two distinct types from two different sources. On balance it is likely that the overall climate was stable until 1980 and then warmed over the following twenty years by about 1°C.
Mexico (Post 93)
Rest of Central America (Post 94)
South America
Of the countries in South America studied so far, only Argentina (0.6°C), Ecuador (1°C) and Uruguay (1°C) show significant warming, although the Ecuador data is far from reliable. In Paraguay and Chile the climate has cooled while in most other countries it has remained stable. The average of all medium and long stations in South America yields a warming of about 0.5°C since 1900.
All long and medium stations (Post 35)
Argentina (Post 61)
Bolivia (Post 58)
Chile (Post 62)
Colombia (Post 95)
Ecuador (Post 96)
Paraguay (Post 59)
Peru (Post 63)
Uruguay (Post 60)
Asia
My analysis so far of temperatures in Asia has focused on the countries of Indochina and the Indian subcontinent. The overall temperature trend for Indochina is one of cooling before 1980 and warming thereafter. The result is that temperatures in 2010 are barely any higher than they were in 1890. This is also reflected in the individual temperature records of Burma, Malaysia and Vietnam, while those of the Philippines and Thailand remain stable from 1920 onwards. In India and Pakistan there is little warming before 1990 and then a sudden jump in temperatures of about 0.5°C in the mid-1990s. For Sri Lanka the jump in temperature occurs in 1978 while Bangladesh sees a continuous warming of only 0.3°C per century.
Bangladesh (Post 74)
Burma/Myanmar (Post 69)
India including Nepal (Post 71)
Indian subcontinent (Post 75)
Indochina (Post 70)
Malaysia and Singapore (Post 69)
Pakistan (Post 72)
Philippines (Post 69)
Sri Lanka (Post 73)
Thailand (Post 69)
Vietnam (Post 69)
Africa
Most of southern Africa has exhibited some significant warming of over 1°C since 1980 but the overall picture before 1980 is varied. Angola, Mozambique and South Africa show no warming before 1980 while Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Madagascar all cool significantly by as much as they later warm. The data for Namibia and Botswana is not great but may indicate a slight warming before 1980 as well as much larger warming thereafter. Of all the countries listed below, Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe have the best quality data and none of these countries appear to exhibit any warming before 1980.
Angola (Post 82)
Botswana (Post 38)
Madagascar (Post 77)
Mozambique (Post 78)
Namibia (Post 39)
South Africa including Lesotho and Eswatini/Swaziland (Post 37)
Zambia and Malawi (Post 81)
Zimbabwe (Post 79)
Australia
Analysis of temperature data for Australia indicates that the mean temperature trend is parabolic with the climate cooling from 1875 to 1960 and then warming. Overall temperatures in 2010 are only about 0.1-0.2°C warmer than in 1875 with temperatures having increased by about 0.5°C since 1960. This pattern in seen in most states such as South Australia, New South Wales and Victoria. It is harder to be conclusive for Tasmania and Western Australia due to a lack of data before 1900 while the trend in Northern Territory is one of consistent cooling. Only Queensland shows constant warming of about 1°C since 1990.
Australia (Post 26)
New South Wales and ACT (Post 18)
Northern Territory (Post 23)
Queensland (Post 24)
South Australia (Post 21)
Tasmania (Post 20)
Victoria (Post 19)
Western Australia (Post 22)
Oceania
Most of the countries and regions of Oceania show little of no warming. In Antarctica the only warming is found around the peninsula. New Zealand cools slightly from 1860 until 1960 then warms by about 0.5°C, rather like much of Australia. Yet despite this, temperatures in 2010 are barely above those in 1860. In Indonesia only the capital city Jakarta shows any strong warming but the average temperature for the country remains stable, although data quality and quantity before 1960 is poor. This is also true for Papua New Guinea where there is some evidence of warming after 1960 by about 0.5°C. In the South Pacific there is a contrast between east and west with the eastern half cooling significantly while the west cools slightly until 1970 before warming again by about 0.5°C. In fact of all the regions listed below, only the Indian Ocean shows significant warming of about 1°C.
Antarctica (Post 30)
Indian Ocean (Post 76)
Indonesia (Post 31)
New Zealand (Post 8)
Papua New Guinea (Post 32)
South Pacific Islands - East (Post 34)
South Pacific Islands - West (Post 33)
Southern Hemisphere
An average of the temperature anomalies from the 1000 longest records in the Southern Hemisphere shows a slight cooling of about 0.1°C until 1975 followed by a modest warming of only about 0.6°C.
Southern Hemisphere station average (Post 64)
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